🔗 Share this article An Prediction Market Trader Profited $436,000 from Bets Predicting Maduro's Downfall. A smartphone screen displays a prediction market application logo. An individual made nearly half a million dollars on the ouster of Venezuela's president shortly prior to it was publicly declared, raising questions about the possibility of profiting from non-public details of the event. Sudden Shift in Predictions Predictions made on the forecasting site, a blockchain-based service, that the leader would be no longer in control by the end of January increased in the time leading up to President Donald Trump announced on January 3rd that the president had been seized. One account, which registered on the site last month and made four bets, all on Venezuela, earned over $436K from a starting bet of $32,537. The identity is unknown. This unidentified trader had only a blockchain identifier for identification. Probability Spikes Before News Break Market statistics shows that participants assessed the probability of the president's removal at just a low 6.5 percent in the midday period of the prior Friday. Yet these probabilities had jumped to eleven percent by late Friday night and skyrocketed in the early hours of the next day, indicating a rapid movement in market sentiment right before the public announcement was made. "That trade has all the signs of a transaction based on confidential knowledge," commented an industry expert. A handful of other individuals also profited significant sums from predicting the capture. Regulatory Scrutiny Intensifies Elected officials are growing concerned. A bill introduced on recently aims to prohibit federal workers from making trades on prediction markets if they have "material nonpublic information" related to a bet. Market Background Event-driven betting sites have become increasingly popular in the United States, with users able to bet on everything from sports outcomes to politics. This sector encountered regulatory challenges under the previous administration. But it has received a warmer welcome during the Trump presidency. Trading on insider information is illegal in the securities markets, but there are less oversight in the prediction market industry. A company executive for another major platform said their site "strictly forbids such activities of any form."